How Distributed Energy Is Reshaping the Energy Landscape
Customer Engagement
Washington
U.S. annual solar PV power capacity additions (GW)
Arizona
265 K Connected Lighting
5 MW
143 MW
7.7 M Voice Assistant Devices
2023E
0%
Renewable penetration across U.S. energy markets
5
227
10,000 MW
56%
0.78 GW
22%
Grid Edge Wheel
2016
64%
30%
Large power plants provided energy to homes and businsses and suppot services to the grid. While centralized generation will continue to play a major role in providing power, DERs are changing the picture.
8%
72%
Utilities are increasingly focused on the needs of their customers in areas that represent a new role, and business opportunity, for the utility. The goals of various customer engagement initiative can be categorized in three groups: new revenue streams, increased program participation, and customer retention and management.
91%
5
Alaska
3.5 M Voice Assistant Devices
0
Australia
82%
0%
60%
32%
25%
0.04 GW
0.38 GW
37%
66%
3.56 GW
4
The combination of advanded metering infrastructure (AMI), connected devices such as smart thermostats and voice assistant devices are offering new opportunities for homes to be active participants in grid services.
1.2 M Connected Lighting
25%
Missouri
Florida
Distributed energy resources have set the stage for profound changes in the way power is produced, stored and used across power grids.
India
19%
Power (GW)
19%
Nevada
4 MW
DERs proliferate
115 MW
Florida
Grid Edge Wheel
201 MW
2017
77%
66%
18
17%
10%
0.22 GW
2.72 GW
2.17 GW
5 MW
5
157
1%
Revenue Area
10%
Connecticut
11%
California
All States
17.1 M
120
20%
26%
20%
74%
59%
Today, software controls and DERs, including rooftop and community solar, behind-the-meter energy storage, intelligent homes and grid integrated buildings, are giving grid operators a way to rethink their business and operational models that offer both new sources of revenue and increased resiliency.
25%
74%
2017
1
Georgia
1.07 GW
Idaho
Annual energy storage capacity additions (GW)
2019
150
0.34 GW
Texas
95%
85%
Growth of U.S. distributed solar
Hawaii
12
1%
Michigan
5
200
Washington, DC
2019E
2015
0.30 GW
0%
32%
89%
10%
Delaware
99%
26%
Rhode Island
30%
99%
10.5 M
37%
6.9 M Smart Thermostats
Non-Residential
85%
Nevada
California
2022
2022E
North Carolina
Maryland
1.4 M Smart Thermostats
3.42 GW
1.9 M Connected Lighting
18%
Pre 2010
2014
82%
0%
99%
6%
10,000 MW
0%
Other Nonrenewable
115
Alabama
5 MW
1.93 GW
2020
78%
Growth of U.S. distributed storage
79%
2013
60%
201
Louisiana
2.28 GW
72%
Among most utilities today, adaptation is the first step as DER penetration grows. Customer adoption of solar, smart devices and battery storage has occurred with little coordination with power providers. Utilities have added advanced metering infrastructure, distributed sensors and intelligent grid software, but mainly as a means to accommodate DERs without a clear line of sight to new revenues.
Japan’s most recent Big Energy Plan calls for 44 percent of its 2030 power mix to be zero-emission using a mix of renewables and nuclear. Since 2016, the country has also deregulated its electricity sector with more than 450 energy retailers competing to offer solar and energy storage.
682 K Connected Lighting
20%
64%
79%
2021E
72%
2018
4.4 M Smart Thermostats
11%
5
Q4 2018
3
89%
171
17%
27%
72%
Traditional power flows evolve
Louisiana
Germany
Georgia
1.05 GW
Q2 2017
Intermittent renewable generation penetration varies by region, but is growing across all markets, with distributed generation growing in CAISO, ERCOT and PJM due to market condidtions.
3%
4 MW
Market & Business Transformation
Maryland
0%
Distributed generation under 100 MW in ERCOT
Technology Segment
Michigan
Australia
Connecticut
20%
3 MW
143
37%
2011
Hawaii
21%
There are now more than 2 million solar installations in the U.S., with an additional 2 million coming by 2023. Distributed generation offers both opportunities and challenges for grid operators that have relied on one-way power flows for decades.
3%
30%
5 MW
Japan
Growth of U.S. distributed storage
0%
78%
02
28%
131
20%
Illinois
1
31%
57%
40%
Adapting to DERs
28%
4.26 GW
26%
Colorado
40%
Other Renewable
66%
40
19%
120
Missouri
6%
200
Nebraska
Q4 2016
Other Nonrenewable
Wyoming
182 MW
Q2 2017
64%
Q4 2017
Delaware
4 MW
Q2 2018
Alaska
Q4 2018
60%
Rhode Island
0%
A brave new world
32%
United Kingdom
Utilities have long-standing obligations to maintain power infrastructure and
operations. Grid Edge solutions can help
address these legacy operations in three
primary ways: optimizing assets and
infrastructure utilization, maintain a
reliable and resilient system, and
improving its ability to proactively detect
issues and deploy solutions
India
A global snapshot of grid innovation
91%
Utility systems are grappling with a host of new technologies that provide challenges and opportunities for system operations. These technologies can be categorized in three groups: software & analytics, distributed energy resources (DERs), and connected hardware devices.
57%
Africa
Oregon
System Performance
11%
North Carolina
New Hampshire
150 MW
227 MW
Brazil
17%
1%
21%
2.49 GW
Georgia
Arizona
A Global Snapshot of Grid Innovation
8.63 GW
157 MW
2.24 GW
Illinois
2020E
57%
21%
0.10 GW
Colorado
6%
Q4 2017
2.02 GW
California
WOOD MACKENZIE is a trademark of Wood Mackenzie Limited and is the subject of trademark registrations and/or applications in the European Community, the USA and other countries around the world.
182
131 MW
6%
2016
75%
40%
2.11 GW
2016
2018
Distributed Generation Under 1 MW in ERCOT
1.70 GW
7.78 GW
91%
10,000 MW
New Jersey
3%
60%
Oregon
0.80 GW
Nevada
Q4 2016
19%
10,000 MW
5 MW
2.85 GW
Nebraska
14%
6
Japan
5
The consultancy Bridge to India expects utility-scale solar capacity additions to cross 10,000 megawatts for the first time in 2019 in India, and for rooftop solar capacity additions to rise nearly 50%.
12.4 M Voice Assistant Devices
New Hampshire
40
28%
32%
21%
3
20%
8.7 M Smart Thermostats
Intermittent renewable generation penetration varies by region, but is growing across all markets, with distributed generation growing in CAISO, ERCOT and PJM due to market condidtions.
3.83 GW
2018
28%
In two years, DERs have more than doubled in the Texas power market ERCOT from Q4 2016 to Q4 2018.
New Jersey
75%
Washington
Wyoming
10.6 M Voice Assistant Devices
2024E
171 MW
26%
6.35 GW
0.21 GW
21.8 M
UK has clocked more than a week without burning coal to fuel its power needs for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, instead relying primarily on wind and nuclear generation, followed by biomass, natural gas, solar and imported electricity.
4
1%
While the Grid Edge is at the distribution and customer level, it’s impact can generate revenue thoroughout the power sector. This revenue areas breakdown into three main areas: wholesale supply, transmission and distribution, and retail power sales.
4
Australian utility Evoenergy is creating virtual power plants using a mix of residential and commercial demand response paired with distributed battery storage.
10.38 GW
77%
A Changing Grid
72%
0.64 GW
2.4 M
Q2 2018
Utilities are increasingly focused on the
needs of their customers in areas that
represent a new role, and business
opportunity, for their organizations. The goals of various customer engagement initiative can be categorized in three groups: new revenue streams, increased program participation, and customer retention and management
5.7 M Voice Assistant Devices
Wisconsin
AL
19.7 M
New Mexico
Idaho
AMI penetration by state
MT
0%
31%
Washington, DC
TN
NJ
939 K Connected Lighting
Residential
KS
Washington, DC
Oklahoma
2021
2021E
32%
6.7 M
0.27 GW
132 K Connected Lighting
0.24 GW
75%
2016
0
Maine
0.49 GW
Maryland
Falling costs for energy storage are providing opportunities for grid operators, businesses and homes to use these assets for load shifting, power when it's needed and grid balancing services.
2021
0
Arizona
2014
CA
89%
03
Utah
9
1%
Vermont
5
160
2020
2018
Alabama
2020E
WA
Adapting to DERs
10,000 MW
The combination of advanded metering infrastructure (AMI), connected devices such as smart thermostats and voice assistant devices are offering new opportunities for homes to be active participants in grid services.
Virginia
Kansas
RI
72%
19%
21%
2017
462 K Connected Lighting
14%
Germany will effectively have to replace 47 percent of its baseload capacity with new forms of generation in the coming years as it phases out nuclear generation and coal entirely.
5
Q3 2018
2
95%
1
3.29 GW
1
10.00 GW
5%
SD
2024E
2013
4
New York
PA
WY
United States
MA
Solar
4.44 GW
South Dakota
Texas
5 MW
2.87 GW
2019
Michigan
23.9 M
82%
8%
66%
2012
Montana
Technology Segment
74%
Customer Engagement
02
Maine
4
Arkansas
System Performance
2.9 M Smart Thermostats
Utility
Traditional power flows evolve
Oklahoma
Puerto Rico
OH
SC
CO
9.28 GW
2023
Revenue Area
OR
LA
Mississippi
CT
8%
There are now more than 2 million solar installations in the U.S., with an additional 2 million coming by 2023. Distributed generation offers both opportunities and challenges for grid operators that have relied on one-way power flows for decades.
Texas
5 MW
5%
0 MW
Off-grid energy investment, which includes solar panels to power lights, cellphones and other household devices, up to microgrids that power entire communities, rose from nearly nothing prior to 2010 to a total of nearly $1.7 billion at the end of 2018, with about 80 percent of that investment going to Africa.
5.8 M Smart Thermostats
2022E
NE
As DER costs continue to fall and penetration rises, these assets are reaching a point where they can be treated as a true grid resource, providing services that benefit both the customer and the utility.
As renewables continue to take market share away from the power market's centralization generation, intelligently managed DERs offer a vision of a world where demand may be as easily dispatchable as supply. Markets and regulations must be redesigned, but the technical capabilities for this new grid have arrived.
5
5
Africa
NV
0.83 GW
VT
Connected home forecast
GA
MO
3.92 GW
Brazil is the leader in distributed solar Latin America with more than capacity growing more than 10-fold since 2017 to 750 megawatts.
0 MW
0
1
MD
While the Grid Edge is at the distribution
and customer level, its impact can
generate revenue throughout the power
sector. This revenue opportunity breaks down into three main areas: wholesale supply, transmission and distribution, and retail power sales
AZ
Minnesota
0.06 GW
Wood Mackenzie™, a Verisk business, is a trusted intelligence provider, empowering decision-makers with unique insight on the world’s natural resources. We are a leading research and consultancy business for the global energy, power and renewables, subsurface, chemicals, and metals and mining industries. For more information visit: woodmac.com
Oklahoma
9.2 M Voice Assistant Devices
80
ID
FL
NC
MS
20%
PR
1.90 GW
New Mexico
72%
4
8.65 GW
5
Connected home forecast
Montana
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
WV
Iowa
IA
99%
5 MW
Pennsylvania
3
1 MW
2023
UT
HI
15
18%
74%
MI
240
2.63 GW
1.79 GW
NH
Germany
Massachusetts
6%
2015
Tennessee
1.80 GW
A changing grid
95%
Other Renewable
TX
Brazil
In the U.S., utilities and regulators are increasingly looking at distributed energy solutions, such as demand response and energy storage, instead of natural gas peaker plants. For example, in April, Southern California Edison selected a roster of energy storage projects to supply capacity needs instead of the 262-megawatt natural-gas peaker plant it had chosen previously.
2017
2.41 GW
1.10 GW
NM
2.10 GW
1 MW
10.80 GW
60%
2019E
KY
10,000 MW
0.69 GW
56%
Indiana
West Virginia
Q3 2017
3.27 GW
79%
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Asia Pacific +65 6518 0800
Email contactus@woodmac.com
Website www.woodmac.com
1
0 MW
AK
0%
Delaware
5 MW
Ohio
4
2023E
1 MW
South Carolina
2.25 GW
0.23 GW
11.5 M Voice Assistant Devices
United Kingdom
5
VA
Customer Engagement
5
10,000 MW
2.01 GW
78%
0
DC
0.31 GW
891 K Voice Assistant Devices
Q1 2018
01
14.3 M
Distributed energy resources have set the stage for profound changes in the way power is produced, stored and used across power grids.
NY
5
3
5
10,000 MW
9.5 M Smart Thermostats
North Dakota
Utilities are increasingly focused on the needs of their customers in areas that represent a new role, and business opportunity, for the utility. The goals of various customer engagement initiative can be categorized in three groups: new revenue streams, increased program participation, and customer retention and management.
0
ME
IN
22%
21%
7.8 M Smart Thermostats
1.5 M Connected Lighting
Renewable Penetration Across U.S. Energy Markets
3.18 GW
2022
28%
Wind
Massachusetts
OK
8%
26%
77%
Large power plants provided energy to homes and businesses and support services to the grid. While centralized generation will continue to play a major role in providing power, DERs are changing the picture.
MN
IL
6%
31%
5 MW
Australian utility Evoenergy is creating virtual power plants using a mix of residential and commercial demand response paired with distributed battery storage.
Falling costs for energy storage are providing opportunities for grid operators, businesses and homes to use these assets for load shifting, power when it's needed and grid balancing services.
New York
WI
03
27%
0
Virginia
60%
DERs proliferate
AR
UK has clocked more than a week without burning coal to fuel its power needs for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, instead relying primarily on wind and nuclear generation, followed by biomass, natural gas, solar and imported electricity.
59%
56%
Among most utilities today, adaptation is the first step as DER penetration grows. Customer adoption of solar, smart devices and battery storage has occurred with little coordination with power providers.
28%
6%
Utah
2010
South Carolina
2
19%
Japan’s most recent Big Energy Plan calls for 44 percent of its 2030 power mix to be zero-emission using a mix of renewables and nuclear. Since 2016, the country has also deregulated its electricity sector with more than 450 energy retailers competing to offer solar and energy storage.
85%
1.26 GW
Q1 2017
In two years, DERs have more than doubled in the Texas power market ERCOT from Q4 2016 to Q4 2018.
DE
0 MW
5 MW
Alabama
Mississippi
Puerto Rico
Market & business transformation
Utility systems are grappling with a host
of new technologies that provide
challenges and opportunities for system
operations. These technologies can be
categorized in three groups: software &
analytics, distributed energy resources
(DERs), and connected hardware devices
Vermont
Off-grid energy investment, which includes solar panels to power lights, cellphones and other household devices, up to microgrids that power entire communities, rose from nearly nothing prior to 2010 to a total of nearly $1.7 billion at the end of 2018, with about 80 percent of that investment going to Africa.
Minnesota
21%
5 MW
0
1.06 GW
Indiana
Maine
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Germany will effectively have to replace 47 percent of its baseload capacity with new forms of generation in the coming years as it phases out nuclear generation and coal entirely.
Brazil is the leader in distributed solar Latin America with more than capacity growing more than 10-fold since 2017 to 750 megawatts.
Vermont
59%
The consultancy Bridge to India expects utility-scale solar capacity additions to cross 10,000 megawatts for the first time in 2019 in India, and for rooftop solar capacity additions to rise nearly 50%.
Utilities have long-standing obligations in maintain power infrastructure and operations. Grid Edge solutions can help address these legacy operational in three primary ways: optimizing assets and infrastructure utilization, maintain a reliable and resilient system, and improving its ability to proactively detect issues and deploy solutions.
21%
14%
32%
North Dakota
0 MW
5 MW
In the U.S., utilities and regulators are increasingly looking at distributed energy solutions, such as demand response and energy storage, instead of natural gas peaker plants. For example, in April, Southern California Edison selected a roster of energy storage projects to supply capacity needs instead of the 262-megawatt natural-gas peaker plant it had chosen previously.
18%
1%
22%
6.16 GW
8%
Utilities have added advanced metering infrastructure, distributed sensors and intelligent grid software, but mainly as a means to accommodate DERs without a clear line of sight to new revenues.
99%
ND
20%
Wind
72%
0
Iowa
80
Kentucky
West Virginia
160
Ohio
5%
240
Solar
26%
0%
1 MW
Q1 2017
6%
Kansas
Q3 2017
Idaho
5 MW
Q1 2018
Arkansas
Q3 2018
South Dakota
5%
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